Georgie Does Jerusalem

“A gun is not an argument.” - Ayn Rand

Besides the Primaries dog and pony show this week, two allegedly coincidental events have made headlines. Firstly, 5 bitsy little Iranian speedboats harass and threaten a flotilla of US warships. Yeah, right. The ant climbing the elephant’s leg with intent to rape. And, George Bush heads off to the Middle East - for the first time in his Presidency - to set things straight and get those petulant Israelis and their churlish Palestinian cousins to play nice before his term ends. I suppose one can’t blame him. Who would want to leave a two-term Presidency only to be remembered by History as the person on whose watch 9/11 happened, the person who spent a trillion dollars and could not capture a man living in caves, the person who eviscerated the Bill of Rights and marched America several steps closer to being a de facto police state, and finally, the only non-English-speaking/functionally illiterate person ever to hold the office of President? Far better to bow out as the Peacemaker, wot!

To give him his due, I did note that in a speech given over there in the land of figs, dates and dueling deities, he actually made reference to Israel’s “occupation” of Palestinian land. This, I believe, is a first. I suspect it is just window dressing - something cleared with his Israeli controllers beforehand, but let’s be optimistic and hope that there is real meaning there and that the man may have actually grasped at last that the settlements are illegal. (In case you don’t know, there are a lot of them: ISRAELI SETTLEMENTS ETC )

Now I say “allegedly” above about the coincidence of these two events because my darker, cynical side is not convinced. Something tells me there may be an explanation other than coincidence. My nagging suspicion flows from my long-held assumption that Dubbya desperately wants and intends to invade Iran, just as he did Iraq. (Remember, folks, in his very first Cabinet meeting as President he flat out ordered his minions to find him a reason to take out Saddam.) Prior to doing so he would need 3 things, I think.

First, he would need a base of public perception that Iran posed a threat. This, he has been hard at work on for the past year or more - in the “seeking nookyoolar weapons” realm. (When was the last time you heard anyone in the media point out that Iran has done and is doing absolutely nothing that it does not have a legal right to do? It is in strict compliance with the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, unlike, say India who has blatantly violated it and is rewarded by Bush.)

Secondly, he would need to be sure all his Israeli ducks are in a row - much as his father did during the first Gulf War. Israel must be apprised and in line and ready to provide support while at the same time prepared to show restraint in the face of possible retaliation against them.

Finally, he would need what screenwriters call an “inciting incident” - the event that triggers the transition from Act One to Act Two. In other words, Bush needs his Gulf of Tonkin.

Given my premise (which may be nuts, of course) this week’s “coincidence” is more than a tad interesting. What’s next, I wonder? An Iranian fishing trawler launches an unprovoked attack on a U.S. carrier-group?

Let’s stay tuned, shall we?